Prof. Calla Wiemer
American Committee on Asian Economic Studies, USA
Title: Asian Stabilization Policy in the Wake of Covid: Applying the Framework of “Macroeconomics for Emerging East Asia”
Abstract:
Macroeconomic stabilization
policy in emerging Asia requires attention to both internal and external
balance under constraints on policy space. My textbook, “Macroeconomics for
Emerging East Asia” (Cambridge University Press, 2022), develops an analytical
framework suited to understanding macro fluctuations and policy management within
this context. The framework provides guidance on how to coordinate the monetary
and fiscal arms of macro policy to pursue balance both internally (growth at
potential with inflation low and stable) and externally (positions on the
current and financial accounts of the balance of payments at sustainable
targets) simultaneously. Monetary policy is fashioned with respect to the interest
rate and the exchange rate as intertwining instruments, and is constrained by
global capital flows. Fiscal policy is constrained by debt sustainability concerns
in view of the debt-to-GDP ratio and its trajectory based on the interest rate
and the GDP growth rate.
The keynote
speech will apply the analytical framework of the text to interpreting current
macro policy in 12 Asian economies:
Bangladesh; China; Hong Kong; India; Indonesia; Korea; Malaysia; the
Philippines; Singapore; Taiwan; Thailand; and Vietnam. In response to Covid,
these economies undertook major stimulus, from which they must now revert
course. The space for managing policy in Asia is influenced by US policy acting
on global capital flows. US stimulus in response to Covid kept global interest
rates low, affording space for Asian economies to pursue their own expansionary
policies under buoyant exchange rate conditions. All too soon, however, such broad-based
stimulus caused inflation to surge up, prompting the US to tighten. As US interest
rates have risen, capital has been drawn away from emerging economies, putting downward
pressure on their currency values and compelling them to tighten as well. The
presentation will assess these conditions and draw conjectures on the way
forward.
Biography:
Calla
Wiemer is the author of Macroeconomics for Emerging East Asia (Cambridge
University Press, 2022), a textbook aimed at disrupting the US-centric approach
to teaching macro long predominant in Asia. As president of the American
Committee on Asian Economic Studies, she moderates the Asia Economics Blog.
And as a member of the US National Business Economic Issues Council, she briefs
US corporate economists on conditions in Asia. Professor Wiemer has taught at
the University of Hawaii at Manoa (1984-1996), the National University of
Singapore (2004-2008), Claremont McKenna College (2010), IES Abroad at Beijing
Foreign Studies University (2012-2013), the University of the Philippines Diliman
(2015-2018), and the KDI School of Public Policy and Management (2019). She
served as editor-in-chief of the Journal of Asian Economics from 2015 to
2020 and is currently on the editorial boards of Asian Economics Letters and the Asian Journal of Economics and Banking. Her major consulting projects
have involved work on cross-border economic relations in Central Asia (1997-2001)
and development of sample survey techniques for measuring small scale industry
for China’s GDP accounts (2001-2002). Dr. Wiemer received her Ph.D. in
economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with dissertation research
at Nanjing University. She is bicontinental with homes in Los Angeles and
Manila.